Diseño y validación de la escala pronóstica cubana PREDICMED para estratificar el riesgo de mediastinitis postoperatoria / Design and validation of the Cuban prognostic scale PREDICMED to stratify the risk of postoperative mediastinitis

RESUMEN Introducción: La predicción de fenómenos en las ciencias médicas mediante escalas pronósticas constituye una herramienta valiosa en la actualidad y deben incluirse en el proceso de toma de decisiones. Pronosticar la mediastinitis postoperatoria permite disponer de recursos para su prevención. Objetivo: Construir una escala pronóstica para estratificar el riesgo de padecer mediastinitis postoperatoria. Método: Se realizó un estudio de casos y controles para los factores de riesgo de mediastinitis postoperatoria en el Cardiocentro Ernesto Guevara de Santa Clara, Cuba. Luego de la regresión logística se obtuvo el modelo y, a partir de este, se incluyeron y ponderaron los predictores para obtener la escala cubana pronóstica de mediastinitis postoperatoria: PREDICMED, que se validó por diversos métodos. Resultados: Esta escala se obtuvo con seis predictores y dos estratos de riesgo. Se analizó su rendimiento mediante ajuste, calibración y determinación de su poder discriminante, con buenos resultados. Se realizó validación interna por el método de división de datos y se comparó su capacidad en ambos subconjuntos (desarrollo y validación) sin diferencias. Se probó su buena validez de constructo, al no existir diferencias entre las probabilidades predichas y las observadas. También se analizó su validez de contenido mediante expertos. Por último, se determinó su validez de criterio al comparar con otra escala similar (MEDSCORE). PREDICMED presentó muy buena capacidad discriminatoria (área bajo la curva 0,962) y elevados valores de sensibilidad (84,62%) y especificidad (92,31%). Conclusiones: La escala pronóstica cubana PREDICMED, para estratificar el riesgo de mediastinitis postoperatoria, mostró buenos parámetros de validación y logró estratificar el riesgo en no alto y alto.

ABSTRACT Introduction: Phenomena prediction through prognostic scales is a valuable tool in medical sciences nowadays and it should be included in the decision-making process. Predicting postoperative mediastinitis allows to count on resources for its prevention. Objective: To build a prognostic scale to stratify the risk of suffering from postoperative mediastinitis. Method: A case-control study for the risk factors of postoperative mediastinitis was carried out at the Cardiocentro Ernesto Guevara from Santa Clara, Cuba. After the logistic regression, the model was obtained and from it, the predictors to obtain the Cuban prognostic scale of postoperative mediastinitis PREDICMED were included and weighted, which was validated through several methods. Results: This scale was obtained, counting on six predictors and two risk strata. Its performance was analyzed through adjustment, calibration and determination of its discriminating capacity, showing good results. Internal validation was carried out through the data division method and its capacity was compared in both subsets (development and validation) showing no differences. Its good construct validity was demonstrated, since there were no differences between the predicted and the observed probabilities. Its contents validity was also analyzed by experts. Finally, its criteria validity was determined when compared with another similar scale (Medscore). PREDICMED showed a very good discriminatory capacity (area under the curve 0.962) as well as high values of sensitivity (84.62%) and specificity (92.31%). Conclusions: The Cuban prognostic scale PREDICMED, to stratify the risk of postoperative mediastinitis showed good validation parameters and it was able to stratify the risk in not high and high.

Utilidad de las escalas Rockall y Baylor modificado en hemorragia digestiva alta por úlcera péptica / Usefulness of the Modified Rockall and Baylor Scores in Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage due to Peptic Ulcer

Introducción: la hemorragia digestiva alta constituye un problema de salud frecuente en todo el mundo y es una de las urgencias que determina gran número de ingresos en los servicios de Cirugía General en nuestro medio, por lo que reviste gran importancia clínica y sanitaria. Objetivo: determinar la utilidad de las escalas de Rockall y Baylor modificado para pronosticar resangrado en pacientes con hemorragia digestiva alta. Método: se realizó un estudio observacional descriptivo prospectivo, incluyendo a los pacientes ingresados por hemorragia digestiva alta por úlcera péptica en el Hospital Enrique Cabrera, desde el 1ro. de enero del 2012 hasta el 30 de septiembre del 2015. Resultados: de 300 pacientes ingresados por hemorragia digestiva alta por úlcera péptica, se tomó una muestra de 71 enfermos. El tratamiento endoscópico se realizó a todos los pacientes, y el tratamiento quirúrgico en 8,4 por ciento. Nueve pacientes presentaron resangrado (12,7 por ciento). Las escalas de Rockall y Baylor modificado presentaron una especificidad de 82 por ciento y 86 por ciento, respectivamente con baja sensibilidad en ambos casos a pesar de esto la escala de Rockall es la de mayor sensibilidad. Conclusiones: las dos escalas fueron altamente específicas, pero la de Rockall fue más sensible para identificar los pacientes con riesgo alto de resangrado(AU)

Introduction: Upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage is a common health problem worldwide and one of the emergencies determining a huge number of admissions into general surgery services in our scenario, it is therefore of great clinical and sanitary importance. Objective: To determine the usefulness of the modified Rockall and Baylor scores in predicting rebleeding in patients with upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. Method: A prospective, descriptive, observational study was carried out, including patients admitted for upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage due to peptic ulcer in Enrique Cabrera, from January 1st, 2015 to September 30, 2015. Results: Among the 300 patients admitted for upper digestive hemorrhage due to peptic ulcer, we took a sample of 71 patients. All patients were performed endoscopic treatment, while 8.4 percent were performed surgical treatment. Nine patients presented with rebleeding (12.7 percent). The modified Rockall and Baylor scores showed a specificity of 82 percent and 86 percent, respectively, with low sensitivity in both cases. Despite this, the Rockall score is the one with the highest sensitivity. Conclusions: The two score were highly specific, but the Rockall score was more sensitive for identifying patients at high risk of rebleeding(AU)

Prognostic Tools for Early Mortality in Hemorrhagic Stroke: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Several risk scores have been developed to predict mortality in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We aimed to systematically determine the performance of published prognostic tools. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for prognostic models (published between 2004 and April 2014) used in predicting early mortality (<6 months) after ICH. We evaluated the discrimination performance of the tools through a random-effects meta-analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) or c-statistic. We evaluated the following components of the study validity: study design, collection of prognostic variables, treatment pathways, and missing data. RESULTS: We identified 11 articles (involving 41,555 patients) reporting on the accuracy of 12 different tools for predicting mortality in ICH. Most studies were either retrospective or post-hoc analyses of prospectively collected data; all but one produced validation data. The Hemphill-ICH score had the largest number of validation cohorts (9 studies involving 3,819 patients) within our systematic review and showed good performance in 4 countries, with a pooled AUC of 0.80 [95% confidence interval (CI)=0.77-0.85]. We identified several modified versions of the Hemphill-ICH score, with the ICH-Grading Scale (GS) score appearing to be the most promising variant, with a pooled AUC across four studies of 0.87 (95% CI=0.84-0.90). Subgroup testing found statistically significant differences between the AUCs obtained in studies involving Hemphill-ICH and ICH-GS scores (p=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Our meta-analysis evaluated the performance of 12 ICH prognostic tools and found greater supporting evidence for 2 models (Hemphill-ICH and ICH-GS), with generally good performance overall.

Application of the pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) score and determination of mortality risk factors in a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit

INTRODUCTION: To establish disease severity at admission can be performed by way of the mortality prognostic. Nowadays the prognostic scores make part of quality control and research. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality is one of the scores used in the pediatric intensive care units. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is the utilization of the pediatric risk of mortality to determine mortality risk factors in a tertiary pediatric intensive care units. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study, in a period of one year, at a general tertiary pediatric intensive care unit. The pediatric risk of mortality scores corresponding to the first 24 hours of hospitalization were recorded; additional data were collected to characterize the study population. RESULTS: 359 patients were included; the variables that were found to be risk factors for death were multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, mechanical ventilation, use of vasoactive drugs, hospital-acquired infection, parenteral nutrition and duration of hospitalization (p < 0,0001). Fifty-four patients (15 percent) died; median pediatric risk of mortality score was significantly lower in patients who survived (p=0,0001). The ROC curve yielded a value of 0.76 (CI 95 percent 0,69-0,83) and the calibration was shown to be adequate. DISCUSSION: It is imperative for pediatric intensive care units to implement strict quality controls to identify groups at risk of death and to ensure the adequacy of treatment. Although some authors have shown that the PRISM score overestimates mortality and that it is not appropriate in specific pediatric populations, in this study pediatric risk of mortality showed satisfactory discriminatory performance in differentiating between survivors and non-survivors. CONCLUSIONS: The pediatric risk of mortality score showed adequate discriminatory capacity and thus constitutes a useful tool for the assessment of prognosis for pediatric patients admitted to a tertiary pediatric intensive care units.

Análise dos escores de gravidade como preditores na mortalidade em cirróticos hospitalizados / Evaluation of the prognostic scores to predict mortality in hospitalized cirrhotic patient

Introdução: Diversos índices têm sido propostos na avaliação da gravidade da doença hepática. Objetivo: Analisar os escores de Child-Turcote- Pugh (CTP), APACHE II, MELD e SOFA como índices prognósticos de mortalidade hospitalar em pacientes cirróticos. Metodologia: Foram avaliados prospectivamente todos os cirróticos que se internaram em enfermaria provenientes da emergência de um Hosputal Geral de Porto Alegre, em um período de 6 meses. Os escores CTP, MELD, APACHE II e SOFA foram registrados, bem como o desfecho (alta ou óbito). O nível de significância adotado foi de 5%. Resultados: Foram avaliados 61 cirróticos. Quarenta e três eram homens (70%). A média de idade foi de 54,7±11,7 anos. Álcool e/ou o vírus da hepatite C (HCV) foram responsáveis pela etiologia de 50 (82%) casos. Quanto ao CTP, houve 7 (32%) mortes naqueles CTP A ou B, e 11 (38%) naqueles C (p=0,27). A mediana do escore MELD foi de 15, sendo que houve 3 (11%) mortes naqueles com MELD < 15 e 15 (45%) naqueles com MELD ≥15 (p=0,02). A mediana do escore APACHE II foi de 9, sendo que houve 0 morte naqueles com índice < 9 e 18 (41%) naqueles com índice ≥9 (p<00,1). Em relação ao SOFA, a média foi de 3,6±1,8 naqueles vivos versus 5,6±2,6 naqueles que foram a óbito durante a internação (p=0,005). A mortalidade hospitalar foi de 29% (18 casos). Conclusões: Os escores MELD, APACHE II e SOFA se mostraram bons preditores de mortalidade em cirróticos hospitalizados, mas não a classificação de CTP.

Introduction: A number of indexes have historically been proposed to assess the severity of liver disease. Aim: To evaluate the Child-Turcote-Pugh (CTP), APACHE II, MELD and SOFA scores as prognostic indexes of in-hospital mortality among cirrhotic patients. Methods: This is a prospective analysis of all cirrhotic patients who were admitted to a general hospital of Porto Alegre in a period of 6 months. CTP, MELD, APACHE II and SOFA scores were analyzed, as well as the outcome (discharge or death). The level of significance was 5%. Results: A total of 61 cirrhotic patients were evaluated. Forty-three patients were males (70%) and the mean age was 54.7±11.7 years. Alcohol and/or hepatitis C virus (HCV) were the ethiological agents in 50 (82%) cases. Concerning CTP scores, there were 7 (32%) deaths among CTP A or B and 11 (38%) deaths among CTP C (p=0.27). The median for the MELD scores was 15, and there were 3 (11%) deaths among those with MELD < 15 and 15 (45%) deaths among those with MELD ≥15 (p=0.02). The median for the APACHE II scores was 9, and there were no deaths (0) among patients with indexes ≥9 (p<00.1). Concerning the SOFA, the mean was 3.6±1.8 among living patients versus 5.6±2.6 among those who progressed to death during the hospitalization (p=0.005). The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 29% (18 cases). Conclusions: MELD, APACHE II, and SOFA scores proved to be good predictors of mortality of hospitalized cirrhotic patients, but the CTP did not.